Plenary: How is the hotel industry really doing?
Session focus: Performance metrics, transaction trends, RevPAR forecasting, and regional outlooks.
Speakers:
- Nicole Nguyen, SVP, Valuation & Advisory Services Group, CBRE Hotels
- Jessi Carrier, Senior Vice President, Colliers Hotels
Following the opening economic discussions, the second plenary of CHIC 2025 shifted the focus directly onto Canadian hotel fundamentals—occupancy, rate, revenue per available room (RevPAR), transaction volume and regional performance disparities. Drawing from real-time market intelligence, Nicole Nguyen of CBRE Hotels and Jessi Carrier of Colliers Hotels offered a realistic portrait of where the industry stands.
RevPAR: 2024 saw growth, but 2025 will be about moderation
Nguyen began by noting that 2024 closed with a national RevPAR gain of approximately 4.5 per cent, driven more by rate than occupancy. While these numbers continued the post-COVID recovery trajectory, the story for 2025 is significantly more subdued.
“2025 is shaping up to be a year of moderation,” Nguyen said. “We’re approaching capacity ceilings in several key markets, and while ADR is still growing, it’s losing momentum.”
She projected that occupancy levels will plateau around the 66 to 67 per cent range nationally, which she referred to as “a strong foothold” for the industry but one that lacks headroom. “With minimal runway left for occupancy gains, future RevPAR growth will have to come from ADR—and that’s where we’re seeing challenges,” she said.
Nguyen emphasized that new supply is finally re-entering the marketplace, especially in the Greater Toronto Area, for the first time in years. In 2025, Ontario alone is expected to add approximately 3 per cent new inventory, the most significant supply injection since 2018. While necessary, this new capacity will temporarily suppress RevPAR in affected markets as demand takes time to absorb it.
Regional performance: Atlantic softness, central resiliency, and Taylor Swift
Nguyen and Carrier offered a region-by-region breakdown to contextualize the national figures:
Atlantic Canada: Both Halifax and St. John’s are projected to underperform in 2025. In St. John’s, occupancy dropped significantly in 2024 due to the removal of demand tied to refugee housing and other non-traditional travel segments. “This is not a reflection of economic weakness, but rather the end of a demand anomaly,” Nguyen noted.
Halifax, by contrast, saw healthy demand growth in 2024 but was unable to translate that into RevPAR gains due to a surge in new hotel openings. “The supply came online faster than demand could absorb it,” she said.
Central Canada: Toronto and Montreal are expected to remain relatively stable, although Toronto faces pressure from new supply and the evaporation of one-time event boosts. Nguyen pointed to Taylor Swift’s 2024 tour as a material market influence—Vancouver saw over 30,000 additional room nights and $51 million in room revenue directly attributable to the concerts, while Toronto generated a more modest $48 million boost.
“The removal of those one-off spikes from the 2025 base makes year-over-year growth look flatter than it actually is,” Nguyen explained.
Ottawa: Carrier flagged the impact of the federal election and a sharply reduced parliamentary sitting schedule. “There is a direct and measurable correlation between sitting days and government-related hotel demand,” he said. As a result, Ottawa is expected to be one of the weaker major markets in 2025.
Quebec City and Montreal: Both are performing steadily. Nguyen pointed to increased interest from European travellers and improving group bookings, particularly over the summer months. “The European architecture, culinary tourism, and international branding of these cities give them an edge in attracting overseas leisure travellers,” she said.
Transactions: Money is moving—but not where it used to
Carrier provided a detailed look at Canada’s hotel transaction landscape. While volumes in core markets like Ontario and B.C. have slowed due to limited listings and pricing standoffs, secondary and tertiary markets—particularly in Atlantic Canada—have become more active.
“We’re seeing capital flow east and west, largely because it can’t find product in central Canada,” Carrier said. “Groups that have been growing and are well-capitalized are now deploying equity in places like Dartmouth and Moncton.”
He noted that pricing remains healthy, citing multiple deals trading in excess of $150,000 per key. “That’s significant for those regions, and speaks to the underlying confidence in long-term fundamentals,” he added.
Carrier also discussed a shift in buyer profiles: “We’re seeing more local and regional players building scale in their home markets. Institutional capital is still around, but they’re very selective and largely sticking to premium assets or portfolios.”
Investment themes: Patience and fundamentals
Both speakers emphasized a return to fundamentals among buyers and sellers. Deals are taking longer to close, and underwriting has tightened in response to high insurance costs, elevated property taxes and sustained operating expense pressure.
“There’s still a lot of money on the sidelines. The biggest issue is pricing,” Carrier said. “Sellers are holding onto 2022 expectations, but buyers are looking at operating margins that are under pressure.”