Declining inbound travel may dampen U.S. hotel demand, STR reports

While international travellers account for only 4 to 7 per cent of total U.S. hotel room demand, a moderate decline in arrivals could still result in a loss of several million room nights, STR said in its blog post Analyzing the impact of declining international inbound travel on U.S. hotel demand, published on April 30.

Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company, forecasts a 9 per cent decline in inbound international arrivals to the U.S. in 2025. Travel from Canada is expected to fall by more than 20 per cent.

STR’s analysis estimates that every one per cent reduction in international inbound travel translates into approximately 654,000 fewer room nights sold. A five per cent drop, for example, would mean a loss of about three million room nights. In comparison to the 1.3 billion room nights sold across the U.S. last year, this represents a relatively small dent in overall demand.

Political climate a contributing factor

STR attributed part of the decline to broader global and regional travel shifts, as well as the political climate in the U.S., which may be deterring international visitors.

According to the blog post, "policy decisions and political sentiment can have a ripple effect on travel behaviour, especially when amplified through media or diplomatic responses." Although STR did not cite specific policies or countries, its commentary aligns with reports of softening demand in some foreign markets due to political tensions.

Hotel performance supported by domestic demand

Despite the projected decline in international travel, recent hotel performance data for Q1 2025 shows continued growth, albeit slower than in previous quarters. STR reported a 2.2 per cent increase in revenue per available room (RevPAR) year-over-year for the first quarter, driven primarily by increases in average daily rate (ADR). January posted a 4.3 per cent RevPAR increase, February 2.1 per cent, and March 0.8 per cent.

Major events such as the U.S. presidential inauguration and the Super Bowl’s relocation from Las Vegas to New Orleans contributed to demand in early 2025. However, unplanned events including wildfires in Los Angeles and lingering impacts from hurricanes in the fall of 2024 also played a role in shaping room night trends.

STR concluded that although international travel is declining, its influence on overall U.S. hotel performance remains modest and manageable. The firm noted that continued monitoring of travel patterns will be key for anticipating demand shifts, especially in gateway markets that are more reliant on international business.